[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N23W
ALONG 12N23W TO 7N22W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. A MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
NEAR 8N22W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY SAHARAN AIR IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N42W
TO 6N45W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE AREA OF THE
ITCZ FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 13N56W TO
7N59W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N22W 9N29W TO 9N33W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 9N42W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
8N47W TO 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 28W-32W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 26N90W AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS ALONG THE
N GULF COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED ALONG
THE FRONT ARE MOVING INTO THE FAR NW GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 91W-
93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE NW
GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
RIDGING WILL BUILD W AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 13N75W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR THE N BORDER OF BELIZE. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE SW COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 81W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE S OF
PANAMA IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF LINE
FROM 10N75W IN COLOMBIA TO 12N84W IN NICARAGUA INCLUDING PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. A SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM THE SW TIP OF HAITI TO THE E TIP OF
JAMAICA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE DUE
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST SE OF THE ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM THE SW
TIP OF HAITI TO THE E TIP OF JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIS THIS MORNING. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
ENHANCING THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N75W TO THE SE FLORIDA COAST NEAR MIAMI SUPPORTING A 1015 MB
LOW NEAR 32N77W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
TO 27N79W. AN AREA OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
66W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 22N
BETWEEN 66W-77W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO JUST N OF MIAMI. AN UPPER LOW IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N48W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 45W-55W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL SHIFT N TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT S AND MEANDER OVER
THE WESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE OVER
FLORIDA MON AND MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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