[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 19W FROM 10N TO 20N AND IS MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 13N W OF THE
WAVE AXIS TO 22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N38W TO 06N40W AND IS MOVING W AT
15 KT. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND IS CONFINED
TO A NARROW BAND WHERE THE WAVE INTERSECT THE ITCZ.

A LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N52W TO 06N55W AND
IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE DISPLAYS A MORE TYPICAL WAVE
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED FROM THE WAVE
AXIS WESTWARD TO 57W FROM 06N TO 11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N54W TO 13N57W AND IS MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENERGY FROM THIS WAVE AND THE ONE
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL MERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N87W TO 09N89W AND IS MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED
WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W
TO 09N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N34W TO 07N45W TO 06N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 14W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
28N82W TO 24N87W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 27N89W AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GEORGIA COAST TO THE SE TIP OF LOUISIANA TO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER SW LOUISIANA AND
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INCLUDING HOUSTON. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N
W OF 73W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PANAMA AND MOST OF COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
HISPANIOLA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL ACROSS
THE ISLAND WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS
ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N72W TO 20N72W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 68W. A WELL-
DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...6-7 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS POSITIONED AT 25.5N45.5W. THE CIRCULATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WNW TO NEAR 29N55W IN 48 HOURS. BROAD RIDGING
ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 08N E OF 30W. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N30W TO 28N40W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN A NARROW BAND ARE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT.
A RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N55W TO 26N65W ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB

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