[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131706
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N27W TO 06N29W AND IS MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N54W TO 09N56W AND IS MOVING W AT
20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LOCATED UP TO 300 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND 120 NM E OF THE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N85W TO
10N85W AND IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-
15N BETWEEN 82W-85W INCLUDING EASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N93W TO 07N96W AND IS MOVING W AT
15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N16W TO
09N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N23W TO 10N30W TO 07N40W TO 04N53W. EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AND 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
POSITIONED OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR
29.5N94W AND IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED N OF
26N W OF 90W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
WESTERLY IN 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR 24.5N98.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. IT IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE REST OF THE BASIN WITH SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 40-45 KT.
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR HISPANIOLA REMAINS STABLE WITH
MINIMAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO A DRY
SAHARAN AIR LAYER OVER THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N71W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW
TO 30N78W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 34N67W TO
31N73W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED
ALONG AND UP TO 150 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE SE A WELL-
DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...10 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 26N62.5W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM
23N TO 28N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED ABOUT 7 TO 8 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N30W TO 16N60W WITH SATELLITE CLOUD
DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N TO THE
EQUATOR W OF 20W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W TO THE AFRICAN COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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