[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
IN THE CARIBBEAN A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 9 TO 14
FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 14N46W TO 04N44W
AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
ENGULF THE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
45W AND 51W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM SE OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N53W TO 05N58W AND IS MOVING
W AT 15-20 KT. MOST OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS EMBEDDED IN THE
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 97W S OF 17N WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE E PACIFIC WATERS. SEE THE EAST
PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
06N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR
06N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG TO 05N40W TO 02N50W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED IN A NARROW 60 NM
WIDE BAND CENTERED FROM 10N18W TO 07N23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN GULF S OF 28N W OF
90W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER MOST OF THE E
HALF OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO 25N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A THE SURFACE A
WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A 1020
MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W. A 1016 MB HIGH
IS POSITIONED JUST INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N98.5W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED N OF 27N E OF 87W AND EXTEND
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ABOUT 50 NM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 72W/73W. MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER
MOST OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...
ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33.5N65W AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FLOW FROM THIS
FEATURE COVERS A LARGE AREA N OF 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. A
SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N54W TO 25N54W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM THE SOUTHERN END OF A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 29N BETWEEN 20W AND
42W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE E CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 26N14W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
15N25W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N50W TO
26N57W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS LOCATED WITHIN
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A RIDGE IS LOCATED THROUGH
32N60W TO THE FLORIDA E COAST AT 27N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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