[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS NEARBY THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N45W
TO 5N41W AND MOVING W AT 20 KT. A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AND 850 MB
RELATIVELY VORTICITY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SAHARAN DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO ENGULFS THE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 43W-46W
COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 430 NM SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N51W TO 6N55W AND MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
MOST OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 54W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N94W TO 8N96W AND MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
11N20W TO 6N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 6N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N41W TO 1N50W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 18W-
26W AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 29W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF BEING
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N82W AND PROVIDING RETURN FLOW
OF 5-15 KT. HOWEVER...IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING LIFTING OF MOIST AIR THAT IS
BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE E PAC WATERS. SEE THE WAVES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED ALONG 27N THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING THE GULF WITH E-SE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NE WATERS NEAR THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH IS MAINTAINING EASTERLIES OF 20-
30 KT S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-83W WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A MID-UPPER LEVEL NARROW TROUGH OVER THE
FAR SW N ATLC SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE EASTERN
FLORIDA COAST AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DRY SAHARAN AIR SPREADS ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE BASIN WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
INHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE DUST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIRMASS IS SUPPORTING HAZE. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED MORNING.
A SECOND WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN THU MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING OVER THE ISLAND
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INLAND.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SURROUNDING THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING SOME CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDS INTO
THE FAR SW N ATLC AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N79W TO
26N79W. TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING LIFTING OF
MOIST AIR IN THE REGION...THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
W OF 75W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-60W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
29N52W TO 23N57W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM E OF THE
AXIS N OF 27N. OTHERWISE BESIDES THE WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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