[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N36W TO 13N42W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK AND RELATIVELY FAST WESTWARD
MOVING 700 MB TROUGH AND 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY IN THE
VICINITY OF 08N39W OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
REMAINS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS SOMEWHAT LIMITING
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N53W TO 16N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED
700 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE ALSO REMAINING MOSTLY
EMBEDDED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER THUS RESULTING IN NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N94W TO 22N91W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
BROAD LOW-LEVEL ENERGY IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA S-SW INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
07N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N26W TO 05N30W TO 06N38W TO 02N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 40W-
46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SE
CONUS NEAR 32N83W SW TO 28N97W THEN WEST TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 28N100W. GIVEN THE OVERALL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF COAST...
MUCH OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS
AND MOISTURE OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SURFACE
FRONTS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY...AMPLE MID-LEVEL LIFT IS
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 85W-
98W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 27N
BETWEEN 82W-92W. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 28N TO THE
TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG
27N THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING THE GULF WITH E-SE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE WATERS NEAR
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO DRY NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT THAT SHIFT MORE WESTERLY OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LARGEST IMPACT...ASIDE FROM A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS S OF 18N BETWEEN 84W-86W...CONTINUES TO BE AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-83W.
RECENT ASCAT DATA FROM A PASS AROUND 08/1414 UTC INDICATED THE
STRONGEST CORE OF WIND S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-77W IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WHOLE AREA OF TRADE
WINDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING OVER THE REGION
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CLOUDINESS OR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANCE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 23N83W NE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
32N67W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE PRIMARILY LIES TO
THE NW OF THIS AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LARGELY COINCIDE
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N60W SW TO WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 23N82W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM THE NW BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N79W INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 75W-79W...
WHILE ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NW OF A
LINE FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W THAT
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N55W TO 31N48W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. THIS SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 34N40W THAT INFLUENCES A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED
THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE NOTED E OF 25W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE SW COAST OF PORTUGAL
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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