[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 02N25W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NEAR 08N29W. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTACT
SINCE LEAVING WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 28W-31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NMOF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N41W TO 04N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 AND
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SURROUNDING THE WAVE THAT
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE WAVE HAS
LIKELY DISPERSED A PORTION OF ITS ENERGY INTO A MID-LATITUDE
AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH WHICH LIES TO THE WEST N OF 12N BETWEEN
45-50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 22N78W TO
10N83W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH WITH ENHANCED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N93W TO 15N95W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THW TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...AND ON THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS AT
700 MB. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
07N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N29W TO 06N42W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT
08N47W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT 08N60W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 31W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 27N87W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF. SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA E OF
84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
N GULF N OF 25N...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO EXPECT MORE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMUM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A
MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG BREEZE
CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA AS SEEN IN AN EARLIER ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW ALONG
THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A FAIRLY LARGE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR A FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W. ANOTHER 1027
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N43W. A THIRD 1030
MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N28W. THE EQUATORWARD
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN USUAL AND IS PRODUCING E TO NE
GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N71W. ISOLATED MODERTQAE CONVECTION
IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 70W-80W. MORE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED
NEAR 28N55W AND 23N42W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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