[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N21W TO 14N24W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST YESTERDAY AND
CONTINUES TO KEEP A RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
THROUGH TODAY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/1132 UTC
INDICATED THE WAVE EXHIBITED STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS ACROSS AN AREA S-SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AS OF
THIS EVENING...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N
BETWEEN 21W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N33W TO 17N32W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9
IMAGERY SURROUNDING THE WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN
OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS THE WAVE HAS LIKELY DISPERSED A PORTION OF ITS
ENERGY INTO A MID-LATITUDE AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH WHICH LIES TO
THE WEST N OF 12N BETWEEN 35W-42W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 21N75W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING WITH THE MOST IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SW OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE VICINITY OF
19N76W. OTHERWISE...THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD GLOBAL MODEL
700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 73W-82W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N95W TO 23N90W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT REMAINS FAIRLY DIFFLUENT ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. ASSOCIATED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA S OF 19N BETWEEN 90W-95W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
08N21W TO 09N33W TO 06N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N39W TO 04N44W TO 04N51W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 23W...NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
23N98W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING.
WHILE NO SURFACE FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW GULF...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 86W-99W.
TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W THAT IS PROVIDING AMPLE MID-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF 83W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1016 MB LOW
IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF MOBILE BAY WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 31N81W AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT TO 28N83W TO
25N85W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WHERE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS MAXIMIZED. OTHERWISE...
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N92W
MAINTAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOUISIANA COASTS THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N74W TO A BASE NEAR 11N80W. RESULTING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. AT THE SURFACE...GENTLE
TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THIS
EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS...25 TO 30 KT S OF 13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W AS DEPICTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND
06/1454 UTC. THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W ARE
GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL ATLC
WATERS THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N74W. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...INCREASED
ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY IS FORECAST AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IMPACTS THE ISLAND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS NEAR 30N81W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND MID-LEVEL
ENERGY IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORT
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N81W TO 33N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N WEST OF A LINE FROM THE
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N73W TO 24N78W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N74W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 66W-
73W. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES A MAJORITY OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 34N29W AND A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N53W. A PAIR OF
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE...ONE FROM 22N-30N ALONG 37W AND LARGELY THE
REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N39W...AND THE
OTHER FROM 23N-30N ALONG 47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WESTERN-MOST TROUGH AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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