[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 36.7N 74.4W AT 04/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 105 NM E OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MOVING NE AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. THE EYE OF ARTHUR IS MOVING AWAY
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE STORM CENTER. SEE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EXTENDS FROM 20N19W TO
09N22W AND IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE WAVE. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED NEAR 11N21W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 20N50W TO 10N49W IS MOVING W AT
15-20 KT AND IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WITH THE WAVE DUE TO BEING EMBEDDED
WITHIN A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N66W TO 12N72W AND IS MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BENEATH A BROAD ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IMPACTING THE
WAVE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N88W TO 11N91W AND IS MOVING W-NW
AT 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF
14.7N92.4W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N98W TO 12N97W AND IS MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N16W TO
06N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N27W TO 07N40W TO 03N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05.5N12W TO 07.5N16.5W TO 06.5N23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
POSITIONED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94.5W AND IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE GULF. OVER THE NE GULF SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
26N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SE LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE RIDGING ALOFT MENTIONED IN THE GULF SECTION CONTINUES OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN. FURTHER TO THE EAST A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 12N77W. RESULTING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 72W. A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N58W TO
HISPANIOLA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED UP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 55W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N30W AND IS MOVING S 10-
15 KT. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SW. LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 31N55W TO 23N64W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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