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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

...ARTHUR MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS...
...EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 75.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM E OF KITTY HAWK NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAPE COD HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD
TO WOODS HOLE.

THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
75.3 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM. A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN WAVES NORTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H...AND A GUST
OF 84 MPH...135 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES. A NOAA NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT
OREGON INLET RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 975.5 MB...28.81
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT

COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES AND
ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND COASTAL MAINE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM EDT AND 900 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



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