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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
900 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...ARTHUR BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...165 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SURF CITY TO LITTLE
RIVER INLET.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF LITTLE
RIVER INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO POINT ACONI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NOVA
SCOTIA...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.  THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS FORECAST
TO PASS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND APPROACH NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES ARTHUR A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ARTHUR IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.  NOAA BUOY 41036 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 65 MPH...105 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 81 MPH...130 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.  A
BUOY OPERATED BY THE COASTAL OCEAN RESEARCH AND MONITORING PROGRAM
JUST REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 978.3 MB...28.89 INCHES...FROM INSIDE
THE EYE.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL
STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...1
TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT

COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
COAST OF GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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