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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...EYE OF ARTHUR NEARING THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 77.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NANTUCKET ISLAND
AND FOR CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO POINT ACONI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO POINT ACONI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE
COAST IN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NOVA
SCOTIA...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE MID-ALANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN
IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  ARTHUR IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING.  ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN
EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE STORM...WOULD BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
COAST OF GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM EDT AND 900 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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