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WTNT31 KNHC 031157
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
800 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 78.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80
MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN
THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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