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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

...ARTHUR ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.1W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY...FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY...AND
FOR THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
*  NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
*  WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND


A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE
CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COASTS OF SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ARTHUR IS EXPECETD TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT  WAS  992 MB...29.30 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS.  THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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