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WTNT31 KNHC 021455
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 79.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS
EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS.  THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...2 TO 4 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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