[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 28.0N 79.1W AT 02/0600
UTC...OR ABOUT 95 MILES ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND MOVING
N AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
ARTHUR WILL BE STEERED NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE E OF THE CAROLINAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS LOCATED OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 30W FROM 11N TO 23N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
NO ENHANCED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN
DRY AIR IS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 54W FROM 09N TO 21N...OR ABOUT
420 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION BUT DOES EXHIBIT A
TYPICAL WAVE STRUCTURE AND IS EASILY IDENTIFIED IN THE LATEST
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N71W TO 11N72W AND IS MOVING W AT 10 KT.
MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 83W FROM 09N TO 20N AND MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED AT
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W
TO 08N30W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N30W AND CONTINUES TO 06N40W
TO 04N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 07N TO
09N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 27N95W AND HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. CYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE SE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28.5N89W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
BECOME MODERATE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SATELLITE CLOUD
DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 40 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

EARLIER HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE ISLAND HAVE MOSTLY
DISSIPATED. LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY
COVER HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W WITH THE AXIS
LOCATED THROUGH 32N57W TO 18N63W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A WEAKENING
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N37W
AND IS MOVING N ABOUT 20 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE
CIRCULATION TO 23N38W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT
COVER MOST OF THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE A 1016 MB LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 33N69W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH TO 25N65W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN
65W AND 70W. A 1018 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 30N55W WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W TO THE LOW CENTER AND
THEN CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT TO 25N60W. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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