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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

...ARTHUR DRIFTING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 79.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST.  ARTHUR IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.  AIR FORCE
RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE ARTHUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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