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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER   4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

CORRECTED DAY OF EXPECTED STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE IN THE
DISCUSSION SECTION

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR STRONGER AS IT MEANDERS
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE
EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE SETTLEMENT POINT
OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH...81 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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