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WTNT31 KNHC 011745
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 79.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...
7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED A GUST OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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