[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 010841
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Radar and satellite imagery show little change in the organization
of the tropical cyclone over the past few hours.  The main area of
deep convection remains situated over the southern portion of the
circulation, and banding features are not yet very prominent in
enhanced infrared images.  Surface observations and Doppler radar
velocities suggest that little strengthening has occurred thus far,
and the current intensity is held at 30 kt.  This is also in
agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, and
objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.

There hasn't been much motion early this morning, but the best
guess is that the cyclone is now drifting mainly westward, or about
260/2.  The overall steering scenario seems relatively
straightforward.  A mid-tropospheric trough that is currently over
the north-central United States is predicted by the global models
to move eastward and dig a bit over the next several days.  This
should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and
north-northeastward with some acceleration during the next 2-3
days, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an additional
increase in forward speed later in the forecast period.  The
official forecast track is similar to the previous one, close to
the model consensus, and to the left of the latest ECMWF solution.

Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification
with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone
during the next 72 hours or so.  The official intensity forecast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus.  By the end of the forecast
period, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge
with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in
extratropical transition.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 27.6N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 27.9N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 28.5N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 29.5N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 30.8N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 34.3N  76.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 39.5N  69.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 44.0N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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