[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 5N8W TO
2N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 1N16W TO
0S28W TO 2S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM
3N-5N E OF 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S.
TO THE N WESTERN ATLC NEAR 60W AND WITH BASE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ALONG
25N81W SW TO 23N86W 20N91W TO A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A PLUME OF
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF STREAMING E-NE ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND PART OF THE SW N ATLC IS GENERATING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N E OF
89W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE IN THE SW GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WHERE SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT MODERATE VALUES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH
CENTERS...A 1026 MB HIGH OVER MINNESOTA AND A 1019 MB HIGH OVER
THE NW GULF NEAR 29N93W...EXTENDS INTO THE GULF PROVIDING NELY
WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KT N OF THE FRONT. ANTICYCLONIC WIND OF 5 KT
SURROUNDS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NW GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WHEN IT WILL STALL
FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHILE
WEAKENING. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN
THROUGHOUT SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXCEPT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN...WESTERLY FLOW REIGNS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS ALOFT. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...A BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED SE OF PUERTO RICO COVERS THE
BASIN AND SUPPORT SUBSIDENCE OF VERY DRY AIR DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS ALOFT ARE PROVIDING
SURFACE OVERALL STABILITY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
BASIN. SOME PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE FAR NE BASIN WHICH
MAY BE ENHANCING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED IN JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 10-15
KT DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN
WHILE S-SELY WIND OF 10 KT COVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS CONVERGING ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS BEING SUPPORTED WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WESTERN AND EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE N WESTERN ATLC NEAR 60W AND WITH BASE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE SW N
ATLC AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N69W SW TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N61W SW TO 26N72W TO
25N80W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
BASIN N OF 16N ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES
ISLANDS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE REACHING 65W
SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

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