[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
02N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 11W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA
KEYS SW TO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
ACROSS FLORIDA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 28N. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SW
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. THE
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE NEXT FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING IN FAIR
SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NOTED GENERALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND
PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN...NW OF A LINE FROM 22N81W
TO 19N87W.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE WESTERN ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC THAT
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N65W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR
25N81W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 300 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE WEEKEND WITH
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING N OF 26N
BETWEEN 60W-78W WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP AND
RESULTING IN STRONG E-NE WINDS N OF 30N EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1039 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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