[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
02N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N22W TO 01N28W TO 03N48W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 04W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF
THE MOISTURE LOCATED N OF 24N. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM OVER THE DELMARVA REGION W-SW TO OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THAT IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W W-SW TO 26N90W THEN SW TO
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT TO
30N. OTHERWISE...OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE FRONT HAS PASSED. WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE
NOTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY NORTH WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 25 KT FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR
THE BASIN BY LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY THEN SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE NW GULF ON FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING IN FAIR
SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
NOTED GENERALLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-77W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE WESTERN ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC THAT
SUPPORTS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N75W AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 68W-81W. FARTHER EAST...MID-
LEVEL ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 31N57W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 32N53W TO 27N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 48W AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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