[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 4N8W AND CONTINUES TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N18W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W 0N40W THEN TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
0S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 17W-
29W...5S-0N BETWEEN 27W-40W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDES SW-W FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. MOREOVER...THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE E PACIFIC
WATERS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED ON THE CENTRAL ATLC BY A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF TO
PROVIDE RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT BASIN WIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
BEING ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W WESTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W TO E TEXAS NEAR 29N95W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS
MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE GULF ARE SUPPORTING HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND SE
LOUISIANA. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN REGION
OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. OTHERWISE...ADVECTION FOG
IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN BASIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EASTERN GULF IN THE AFTERNOON
AND DISSIPATING IN THE NIGHT HOURS. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM
TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDES
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN WHICH IN PART IS INHIBITING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A WESTWARD MOVING MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND S-SE WATERS WHICH IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-71W. ANOTHER REGION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN
ENHANCING PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.
IN TERMS OF WIND...EASTERLY TRADES OF 20 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. E-NE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. EXCEPT THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 15 KT BY
TUE MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOW LEVEL MOIST
AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR HAITI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MOIST REGION CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE TRADE WINDS. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC HAS DISSIPATED BY
1500 UTC. REMNANT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W-73W BEING ENHANCED BY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE N EASTERN
ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N20W TO 28N30W TO
28N35W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING TO 29N44W. THE SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINSHOWERS. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N42W. A NEW BUT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC BY EARLY MONDAY WHILE THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SLIGHTLY DEBILITATES AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net