[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 42W-46W AND FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 46W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS SUPPORTING A REMNANT COLD
FRONT THAT AT 23/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA BAY AND CONTINUES TO 27N84W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 25N89W THEN DISSIPATES TO 25N95W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS THE GULF N OF 26N. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB
HIGH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT
WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE N GULF ON SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ALONG 28N ON MON. A
THIRD STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO N GULF TUE NIGHT
REACHING FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH WED.

HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW PENINSULA OF HAITI AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WHEN WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP TO THE LOWER LEVELS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND IS SUPPORTING A
REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT AT 23/0300 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR
32N74W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR VERO
BEACH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLC FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N56W AND IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N80W TO
31N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N24W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 27N40W THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW
NEAR 25N51W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N27W ALONG 31N34W TO 31N40W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 31N45W THEN NW OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N47W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF
30W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E
OF 70W AND IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH NE OF THE FRONT NEAR 34N43W AND A 1030 MB HIGH SW
OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N51W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT
AND LIFT N OF THE AREA SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO W
ATLC MON AND REMAIN N OF 26N AS THE LEADING EDGE PASSES INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC BY TUE AND THE WESTERN PORTION WILL LIFT N OF THE
AREA AHEAD OF A THIRD STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO W ATLC ON
WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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