[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W
AND 77W. THE GALE WILL CONTINUE TO THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
TO NEAR 5N17W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 2N24W TO
1N32W TO 1N41W TO S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM THE ITCZ TO 4N
BETWEEN 35W-45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/1500 UTC STRETCHED FROM
WESTERN ATLANTIC SW THROUGH NE FLORIDA TO SAINT PETERSBURG
FLORIDA...AND CONTINUED SW TO NEAR 27N86W WHERE IT BEGAN TO
WEAKEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N90W TO 23N94W TO
21N95W...THEN TURNED SE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W.
LATEST NWS NATIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR DISPLAY SHOWS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF ALONG AND WITHIN 60
NM S OF THE FRONT E OF ABOUT 85W. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN TO
OCCASIONALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT W OF 90W. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF DENSE SEA FOG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF FROM 25N TO 27N E OF 84W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY
FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SUN INTO MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT TONIGHT
AND SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF ON SUN
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ALONG 28N ON MON. A THIRD AND STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ROUGHLY THROUGH 18N81W 26N71W TO NE OF THE
AREA AT 32N60W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
SWWD TO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO GENERATE
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWERS THAT ARE
QUICKLY MOVING W IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IMPACTING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO
RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN LIMITING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THESE SHOWERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST
INTO MON.

HISPANIOLA...
THE DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING OVER AND THE ISLAND. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS REVEALING ONLY SCATTERED SMALL LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. SOME OF THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND
AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS TONIGHT INTO MON. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/1500 UTC ENTERED THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ATLC AT 32N75W...AND SW TO INLAND FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA
BEACH...AND CONTINUED SW TO W CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
DESCRIBED ABOVE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND NE TO 26N71W TO
BEYOND BERMUDA. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER
BROAD TROUGH IS DIFFLUENT. THIS IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N30W SW TO
28N41W TO AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CENTER AT 25N53W AND SW TO OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE BAHAMAS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR JUST N OF AREA AT 33N52W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY LIFT BACK N N SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ATLC SUN NIGHT STALLING FROM
BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE MON THEN LIFT NE ON TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


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