[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W
AND 77W. THE GALE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N19W TO ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN
25W-28W AND FROM EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 34W-27W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER NE FLORIDA
NEAR 30N83W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N88W 22N95W THEN SE TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W THEN TURNS W TO ALONG THE E SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 82W-87W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM W OF THE FRONT AND S OF 24N OVER THE SW GULF. COLD FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE W GULF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES
TAMPA BAY THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES IN THE E GULF SAT. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE
ALONG 28N MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS SW TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN LIMITING ANY SHOWERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ARE PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS COULD GENERATE
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
ALONG THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT E THROUGH EARLY SUN WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY LOW LEVEL SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP FROM
BECOME STRONG.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N72W AND IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 28N79W TO BEYOND
32N75W. THIS ACTIVITY PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N40W ALONG 25N55W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS
PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 49W-53W.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
75W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 33N54W. GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC OVERNIGHT AND STALL FROM NEAR 31N75W
TO 28N81W ON SAT NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING N OF THE AREA SUN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO W ATLC MON MORNING AND REMAIN
N OF 26N AS IT PASSES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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