[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTH ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING
GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 11 FT.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N15W
AND CONTINUES TO 1N27W TO 2S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 8W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4S-4N BETWEEN 38W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. AND
INTO THE GULF PROVIDES NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE N
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO EXTEND SW INTO THE GULF. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE BASIN WHICH ALONG HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. RETURN
FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND CONTINUE
TO GENERATE ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
ADJACENT WATERS N OF 27N W OF 89W. SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA SW TO SE MEXICO BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND WILL START DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AND STABLE
AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
HISPANIOLA...WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN CUBA.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENTERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL
AS S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-71W. IN TERMS OF WIND...EASTERLY TRADES
OF 20 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WITH NEAR
TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NW
BASIN TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED REGION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING ENHANCED
BY LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ISLAND
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N46W AND
EXTENDS TO 26N61W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING TO 27N67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AT THE TAIL OF THE FRONT FROM
25N-28N BETWEEN 63W-69W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
140 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE JUST EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BASE. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED
BY A 1038 MB HIGH NEAR 39N38W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N19W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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