[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N14W AND CONTINUES TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N17W
AND CONTINUES TO 1N30W TO 2S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2S-2N
BETWEEN 22W-25W AND FROM 5S-3N BETWEEN 32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ALOFT. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N83W. SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE S GULF WITH
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL GULF.
RETURN FLOW ALONG THE N-NW GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS IS
GENERATING ADVECTION FOG N OF 27N WEST OF 90W...OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING AND
RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA SW TO SE MEXICO BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N...INCLUDING NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA. SIMILAR WEATHER IS OVER EASTERN CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY FROM 20N65W
TO 13N65W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND WITH TRAILING MOISTURE GENERATING SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. IN TERMS OF WIND...EASTERLY TRADES OF 15-20 KT
DOMINATE BASIN WIDE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WED MORNING WEST OF HISPANIOLA WHILE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS MOIST AIR
IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE ISLAND BY A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND TO HAITI
LATER TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W AND
EXTENDS TO 26N55W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N65W
WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 60W-65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 41N56W
WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF THE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR
33N24W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT
WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION DIES OUT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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