[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 4N14W TO 1N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
1N20W AND CONTINUES TO 1S30W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W TO COASTAL
BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N EAST OF 12W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 14W-26W. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF ALOFT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC SW TO
FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 29N83W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR N GULF. RETURN FLOW ALONG
THE N-NW GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS IS GENERATING ADVECTION
FOG N OF 27N WEST OF 89W AND IS KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND
OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE  TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN. A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
FORMER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO
HONDURAS. THIS LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN JAMAICA
AS WELL AS NW HONDURAS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN HAITI INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. THE
LATEST ASCAT PASSES INDICATE TRADE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATING
ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT WITHIN 200 NM OF THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA
COAST WHERE WINDS ARE UP TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE...A WESTWARD MOVING
MOIST AIRMASS NE OF PUERTO RICO AND ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES MAY BRING PASSING SHOWERS TO THESE REGIONS AS
WELL AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE BASIN IS EXPECTED FROM TUE NIGHT TO WED NIGHT WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 30 KT WITH 20
KT DOMINATING ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HAITI
AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY NE WIND FLOW AND
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
THROUGH THU LIMITING ANY SHOWERS TO THE LOWER LEVELS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS PART OF THE W ATLC N OF
21N BETWEEN 50W-75W SUPPORTING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS NEAR
30N54W AND CONTINUES TO 28N57W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 25N65W TO THE NE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
20N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 24N59W TO 20N63W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE
W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR
32N33W. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE LATER THIS MORNING WHILE THE COLD
PORTION PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DISSIPATING BY EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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