[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM 32N74W SW TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W IS GENERATING GALE FORCE SW TO W WINDS
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-79W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N19W TO 01N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 04W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 15W-28W...AND S OF 04N BETWEEN
41W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 37N74W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE GULF NEAR 26N82W THEN WESTWARD TO 26N91W. AS WATER
VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW...RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
AND AT THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...RESULTING IN MERELY A
WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED N-NW WINDS...RANGING FROM 10
TO 20 KT...AS DEPICTED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM 15/1556 UTC.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N91W THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AND ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF W OF 90W AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE SW NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NE
VENEZUELA NEAR 09N61W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 17N BETWEEN 84W-90W...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING W-NW ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
TRADES OCCURRING EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-
80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND
WITHIN MOIST E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A STATIONARY FRONT LIES TO
THE NW ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING
AND THIS OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER BY MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND LIE WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WATERS PROVIDING AN INCREASED PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE DELMARVA REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN NORTH
ATLC THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
AREA NEAR 32N74W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N80W. WHILE REMAINING PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THE MOST
PART...GALE FORCE WINDS WERE NOTED ON BOTH SIDE OF THE FRONT ON
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED FROM 32N63W W-SW TO 29N70W THEN SW TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N72W TO 32N64W. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. FARTHER EAST...A
VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
SAHARA NEAR 26N13W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLC FROM 22N16W TO 20N30W. TO THE NW OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N32W IS
GENERATING A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 25N E OF 21W...AS NOTED ON
EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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