[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Feb 14 11:59:18 CST 2014


AXNT20 KNHC 141804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
ATLANTIC DEVELOPING GALE...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE REGION WEST OF A NEW COLD FRONT
TO COASTAL WATERS WHERE W WINDS OF 25-40 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH
SEAS BUILDING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST N OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT WHERE SW WINDS FROM
30-40 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES SW TO 05N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N26W TO 01N34W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S43W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-06N EAST OF 17W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03S-05N BETWEEN 37W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT
NOW IN THE WESTERN ATLC IS OVER THE GULF PROVIDING MOSTLY
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 26N87W WHICH IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OF 5-10 KT EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE. DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
TO THE S-SE BASIN TONIGHT WHILE THE NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM PENSACOLA SW ALL THE WAY TO
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN BASIN BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO ITS BASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WHICH IS DISSIPATING OVER
EASTERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS OF NW JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. THE
TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO 19N81W TO NE
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR COVERING
MOST OF THE BASIN AND AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
STREAMING W-NW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC AND MOVING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA
WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW FLOW
PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
EASTERLY TRADES OF 15-20 KT SPREADS ELSEWHERE WITH STRONGER
WINDS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THIS
WEEKEND...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER NW HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF A DYING COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING W-NW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE
ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SE COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN...ENHANCING CONVECTION
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO ITS BASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION FROM 30N64W TO 24N70W TO THE NE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
20N75W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOSTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
24N BETWEEN 60W-71W. A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
SW N ATLC SAT MORNING GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS W AND E OF THE
BOUNDARY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ANOTHER
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N23W TO 25N38W WHERE ITS STARTS DISSIPATING.
THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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