[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
W TO NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 29N
WEST OF A COLD FRONT THAT AT 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO
24N80W TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 9 TO 12 FT. S TO SW
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 28N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 70W WITH
SEAS FROM 9 TO 13 FT. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS N OF 28N FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF 65W THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE
SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 07N11W THEN TO 05N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 03N30W TO 01N41W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-34W AND FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 35W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ANCHORED BY A 997 MB LOW OVER NE
NORTH CAROLINA. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT CONNECTED TO
THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF THE GULF WATERS LEAVING BEHIND OVER
THE EASTERN BASIN NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BASIN RANGE BETWEEN THE MIDDLE FORTIES
AND HIGHER FIFTIES WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATING BASIN
WIDE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 25N95W
COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND PROVIDES MAINLY
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO START  ENTERING THE BASIN NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SE REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO 25N89W BY SAT
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A VIGOROUS
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ANCHORED BY A 997 MB LOW OVER NE NORTH
CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ENTERED THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AT 1500 UTC EXTENDING ALONG 22N84W TO
19N87W TO 16N87W. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N82W TO NE HONDURAS NEAR
15N85W. EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE TO 50W
IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH ALONG LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
18N BETWEEN 78W-82W...INCLUDING CENTRAL CUBA. EASTERLY TRADES OF
15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE UP TO 25 KT.
OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING W-NW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC MAY ENHANCE SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START
DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA LATE TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NW ACROSS THE ISLAND IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ISLAND. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER
LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TO OVER
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT ADVECTING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
REGION TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM LATE TODAY INTO SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N76W TO WESTERN FREEPORT NEAR
26N78W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN 73W-79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING FARTHER EAST TO 68W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WEST AND
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 28N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS AS A COLD
FRONT FROM 30N43W TO 27N53W TO 29N62W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES
TO BE DOMINATED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N15W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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