[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE GALES WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF 28N
WEST OF 65W THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
11N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ WEST OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING...CONNECTED TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA NEAR
29N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. BUOY
OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE NW WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS RUNNING
6 TO 9 FT. UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING LINES
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW PRESSURE AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER INTO THE NW GULF LATE
THURSDAY...AND MOVE EASTWARD REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO 27N93W
BY LATE SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WITH THE ROUTINE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT. THIS IS DOWN FROM
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFF COLOMBIA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. THE WEAKER TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO DIMINISHING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN.
A FEW CONVERGENT SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DUE TO TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE STREAMING WESTWARD OFF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PANAMA DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL AND BECOME
DIFFUSE BY LATE FRI FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER
LEVELS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO OVER CUBA FRI
ADVECTING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM LATE TODAY
INTO SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE FROM THE NW
BAHAMAS NORTHWARD OVER THE WATERS WEST OF 75W. THIS IS AHEAD OF
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR PANAMA CITY WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND INTO THE WATERS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE
WILL PROCEED THE FRONT N OF 28N AS FAR WEST AS 65W. THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM 31N60W
TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N50W TO 27N60W. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A 1029 MB CENTERED NEAR 31N24W.
FRESH TRADE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OF 22N TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N48W TO 09N50W IS
ENHANCING AREAS OF SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 12N TO
18N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WEST OF 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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