[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NW TO N GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO S OF 26N WEST OF A COLD FRONT THAT AT 1500 UTC EXTENDS
FROM A 1011 MB NEAR 29N86W TO 24N91W TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO. SEAS 8
TO 11 FT.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC
WATERS AT 0600 UTC THU ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. S TO SW
WINDS AND SEAS FROM 9 TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED N OF 29N W OF 76W.

SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
06N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N14W TO 03N21W TO 01N35W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W
TO 23N91W TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO. IT ALSO SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 29N83W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO A 1014 MB LOW IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY TWO 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TEXAS EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND PROVIDES N-NW WIND FLOW WITH
GALE FORCE S OF 26N WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS STREAMING NE BETWEEN A LINE
FROM PANAMA CITY SW TO 25N90W TO 21N93W AND A LINE FROM ST
PETERSBURG TO 24N86W TO 20N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT N OF 25N. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE.
OTHERWISE...S-SE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY
THU. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THE GULF BY EARLY THU AS
WELL...DRIVING CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE A AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILS COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. THIS IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER
BASIN WIDE WITH ONLY LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES OF 15 KT
DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE 20-25 KT WINDS
SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
BASIN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS CUBA THROUGH LATE THU
NIGHT. THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
WEAKENS AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UNITED STATES
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY
DRY AIR AT MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. OVERALL STABLE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT HINDERING
DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
W-SW FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT AT 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N80W TO
29N76W TO 30N70W. CURRENTLY RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N WEST OF 78W. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC WATERS AT 0600
UTC THU ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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