[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO
8 TO 10 FEET ARE FORECAST AT 18 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD... AT 12/0600 UTC...TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF A
30N87W TO 24N94W TO 21N96W COLD FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTH WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST
OF 93W AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT IS
ALONG 30N85W TO 28N92W TO 25N97W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
WEST OF 92W AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO 2N25W
1N30W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 7N12W 7N21W 3N26W 3N45W 4N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...
AND PARTS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N85W...TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 27N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. THE
COLD FRONT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD IN MEXICO TOWARD WEST TEXAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N93W 29.5N89.5W 31N87W...
STRETCHING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN GENERAL TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N85W...TO
28N80W 25N93W 19N96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...RAIN/DRIZZLE...AND VISIBILITIES OF 3
MILES OR LESS WITH FOG COVER TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF LOUISIANA...CARRYING INTO MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS IN FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA FROM PERRY SOUTHWARD.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
WEST OF 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN
TRADEWIND FLOW...COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF
70W...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND TO THE NORTH
OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 79W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 10N80W...ACROSS THE
PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER NEAR 9N83W...BEYOND 8N85W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS
HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 14N TO 20N
INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...APPARENT IN EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA
ROMANA...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA... SANTIAGO...AND IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER
PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE ENTIRE
TIME. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME...AS A
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N80W TO
30N85W ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W 31N76W...BEYOND
BERMUDA.

THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BY 42 HOURS...13/0600 UTC...ALONG 31N81W 30N82W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT MAY REACH GALE-FORCE. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N74W...TO A 1019 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N74W...AND CURVING TO 25N75W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM 26N TO
31N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ALONG 33N59W 27N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN
52W AND 57W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N46W...TO 18N52W
AND 8N56W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 12N TO
23N BETWEEN 37W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO
25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N4W IN MOROCCO...TO 31N16W...TO A 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N30W...29N39W 28N26W 25N61W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
10N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 45W
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. EXPECT WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LINE FROM 25N35W TO 21N50W TO 14N61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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