[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
06N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 08W...
AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 23W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY PATTERN IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING AS ONLY A VERY SUBTLE
WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF
SW TO A BROAD BASE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. AS A RESULT...
RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N87W INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE
GULF WATERS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING ANALYZED TO THE
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA WESTWARD ALONG 30N/31N TO CENTRAL
TEXAS. WITH THE RIDGING IN PLACE...LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT IS FORECAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD AND
EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PROVIDING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME. ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION AND
ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING E OF 68W...
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC. IN ADDITION...OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE USUAL STRONGER WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT
LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-81W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ISLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE
TO WESTERLY FLOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N55W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N61W SW TO 28M70W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY
TO 26N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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