[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG
3N16W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W TO 1S33W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 1N-4N E OF 15W AND FROM
2S-5N BETWEEN 29W-46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN
18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1038 MB HIGH NEAR CALGARY CANADA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE GULF. RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN IS
BEING REINFORCED BY A NEWLY FORMED 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N86W THAT IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SE OF
A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY TO 25N90W TO 23N95W AND EASTERLY-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE REMAINDER BASIN. IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE
WESTERN N ATLC W OF 60W SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR
29N92W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W. THIS MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ALSO
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER
THE SE GULF ALONG 24N81W TO 23N85W TO 22N90W. FAIRLY DRY AIR
ALOFT AND AT THE LOWER LEVELS SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO FADE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF. HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE BASIN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN
A NEW FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AND STABLE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
EXCEPT FOR THE NW BASIN WHERE MODERATE MOIST AIR IS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTION. SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDES NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KT TO THE NW BASIN WHICH IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM BELIZE TO NICARAGUA AND GENERATING SHOWERS MAINLY INLAND IN
THESE COUNTRIES. EASTERLY TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS IN SOME OF
THESE ISLANDS. EXCEPT FOR THE RETURN OF EASTERLY TRADES TO THE
NW BASIN BY MON MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL...WESTERN ISLAND AS WELL AS NORTHERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND SOUTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. HOWEVER...OVERALL
STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THUS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO 60W
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 2100
UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N66W TO 26N77W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 31N77W TO 26N78W THAT IS PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS TO
FREEPORT. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N42W WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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