[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 10W-16W...AND S OF 04N
BETWEEN 18W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W SW TO A
BROAD BASE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N102W. THIS TROUGHING IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W W-SW TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR
23N90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 81W-
88W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR 29N89W AND A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE 1023 MB HIGH EXTENDING FROM 20N94W TO 26N96W. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN WHILE
WEAKENING GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE GULF UNTIL MONDAY
WHEN THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 75W FROM OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS A RELATIVELY FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 78W-89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN 65W-80W.
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLIES PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N54W. WHILE THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS ALOFT...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
STREAMING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS E OF 65W. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT WITH THE USUAL STRONGER WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT LOCATED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ISLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE
TO N-NW FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS MORNING BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N76W NE TO 30N57W. THE TROUGHING TO THE WEST SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N70W SW TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 26N80W WHERE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION MORE
STATIONARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF
THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE N-NE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...
CENTRAL ATLC...AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N41W. THE RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD ALONG 29N/30N TO THE CANARY
ISLAND AND AS FAR WEST TO 28N67W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 20N54W...
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER NE VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
07N-19N BETWEEN 46W-63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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