[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071053 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 07 2014

CORRECTED GULF OF MEXICO SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W AND TO 2N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AS IT
ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 19W-25W...AND FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AHEAD A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL W
OF THE AREA. ONLY SHALLOW REMAINS FOR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 25N90W TO 22N95W WHERE
IT CURVES SE TO INLAND MEXICO AT 18N93W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE WITH LOW CLOUDS
BANKING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE AS SEEN ON
ON THE LATEST SHORTWAVE IT SATELLITE IMAGES. THE RESULTANT TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE JUST ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW
STRATIFORM CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...AND
DRIZZLE ARE OBSERVED N OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT WITHIN 60-75 NM N
OF THE FRONT E OF 86W WHERE  A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS THERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL
DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER
THE EASTERN GULF N OF THE FRONT WHERE UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS
STREAMING NEWD TOWARDS CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA WITH THE AID OF A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH. THE N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE
N CENTRAL GULF ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON FRI AS
THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES THERE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING BACK S AND
BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT AND SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM
COLOMBIA ALONG 16N80W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS COVERS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N
E OF 64W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD...
TOBAGO...AND BARBADOS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA
...AND JAMAICA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO SAT AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THAT
PORTION OF THE SEA...AND INTERACTS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOIST EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO BRING QUICK PASSING ISOLATED
TO THE ISLAND...AND ITS IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ISLAND
COMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
TODAY. BEYOND THAT...MOISTURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE
SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC FROM
CUBA NEAR 22N80W NE ALONG 29N51W TO BEYOND 32N30W. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AT 07/03100 UTC
ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR 32N70W SW TO 28N77W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO INLAND FLORIDA JUST S OF VERO BEACH...AND
CONTINUES SW FROM THERE TO NEAR FORT MYERS AND TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NW OF THE FRONT
W OF 76W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE NW
OF THE FRONT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN ATLC
NEAR 32N10W SW ALONG 24N27W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
24N42W TO AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 22N50W AND SW TO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 60W-63W
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE S
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE
IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S
OF 17N BETWEEN 47W AND LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N10NW TO
28N17W WHERE IT DISSIPATES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH PRES. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRES COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC AT 32N29W. THE WEAKENING ATLC WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM S OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
SAT AS THE FRONT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
SUN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


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