[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061756 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W AND THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN THE EQUATOR N TO 6N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FLATTENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS SLIDING
EASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ITS BASE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND EASTERN TEXAS. WEAK MID/UPPER RIDING
IS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FORMER TROUGH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT ONLY SHALLOW SUPPORT REMAINS FOR A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM FORT MYERS SW TO 25N87W TO
23N91W TO 21N95W WHERE IT BENDS SE TO 19N93W AND SW TO INLAND
MEXICO JUST W OF VERACRUZ. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKING
UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTANT
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN AN N CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS. LOW STRATIFORM CLOUDS WITH
AREAS OF RAIN...FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE OBSERVED N OF THE
FRONT...EXCEPT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 27N W OF 86W WHERE A SMALL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
COMBINATION WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THAT VICINITY
IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 89W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF N OF THE
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS STREAMING NEWD WITH THE AID OF A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH NEWD TOWARDS CENTRAL AND SW
FLORIDA. THE N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES
THERE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN AS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
FRI...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE GULF...AND TRACKS NE TO
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLC BY LATE FRI INTO SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W
ANCHORED OVER S AMERICA WITH ASSOCIATED AXIS EXTENDING NNW FROM
COLOMBIA NNE TO ACROSS CUBA AND TO THE WESTERN ATLC. AN
EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE S/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
SEA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO SAT AS A
LOW LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THAT PORTION OF THE SEA...AND
INTERACTS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MOIST EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO BRING QUICK PASSING ISOLATED
TO THE ISLAND...AND ITS IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ISLAND
COMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN...SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRI.
BEYOND THAT...MOISTURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OF AROUND THE RANGE OF
1.5-1.75 INCHES SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TURNS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH 26N70W TO 28N60W TO
BEYOND 32N39W. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE
NW PORTION...WHILE BROADER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE REMAINS ONLY SHALLOW SUPPORT FOR A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N72W TO VICINITY
OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN
60 NM OUT OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
TSTMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IS
FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CAPE CANAVERAL
BY LATE ON FRI...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NE
ALONG THE FRONT BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE
FAR EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN. IT STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 32N14W TO 22N29W TO 22N35W WHERE IT BECOMES A CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS TO AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 21N55W...AND
CONTINUES SW TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N12W TO 29N23W TO 28N27W WHERE IT BECOMES FRACTURED AS
IT CROSSES INTO AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH AT 32N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45-60 NM
OF FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED S OF
22N BETWEEN 55W-62W ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ...AND IT EXTENDS FROM
1028 MB HIGH AT 32N35W. THIS HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
NEAR 29.5N33.5W BY EARLY FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net