[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 1N26W TO 1N41W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N EAST OF
20W AND FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 20W-26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS
FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 26W-32W AS WELL AS 1S-5N WEST OF 42W. IN
ADDITION...NW OF THE ITCZ THERE IS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NW GULF SUPPORTS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W SW TO 26N91W TO 22N95W TO THE EASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW
GULF FROM 23N91W TO 17N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS
KEEPING MINIMAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS MAINLY INLAND. HOWEVER...FOG AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND PROVIDES SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT E
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG
CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE CENTRAL BASIN BY LATE WED NIGHT. ON
THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS INTO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PROVIDES TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE
ASCAT DATA SHOW WINDS UP TO 30 KT. THESE TRADEWINDS ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE DAY TODAY. ALOFT...A BROAD
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS
HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. BESIDES CONTINUATION OF THE
TRADEWINDS...THERE IS NO OTHER FEATURE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY BOTH THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR
ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH ALONG LIGHT TRADEWINDS ARE SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND STARTING WED NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INCREASING SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS N OF 17N
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1025 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 31N65W AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N25W.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 43W-55W. THE STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN IS EXPECTED TO
STALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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