[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 22W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 11W-
21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES TO OVER
TEXAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF THAT EXTENDS AT
04/2100 UTC FROM A WEAK 1010 MB LOW N OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ALONG 27N95W TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC REMAINS OVER THE E
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW E OF THE FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WED BEFORE
STALLING THU AND FRI FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ALONG 19N83W
THEN NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-86W. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND USHERED IN ON
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN ACROSS THE ISLAND WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 27N44W THROUGH
20N55W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 49W-53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N64W
AND A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N38W. STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NW PORTION WED EVENING AND STALLS THU THEN LIFTS
SLOWLY NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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