[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
04N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N16W TO 1N30W THEN TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 11W-16W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-30W AND FROM 3S-4N BETWEEN 30W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH LOCATED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WHICH IS SUPPORTING A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE
WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 30N80W TO 29N81W TO
28N82W TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N83W. NO
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...EXCEPT FOR SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS INLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE VERY DRY
AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF
MEXICO AND OVER THE NW GULF W OF 90W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM 25N-27N WEST
OF 91W. OTHERWISE ADVECTION FOG IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW
GULF N OF 26N WEST OF 89W AND INLAND ALONG THE COAST. RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS BEING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SUN MORNING WHILE
A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY MON MORNING THIS NEW FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL FROM ALABAMA SW TO CENTRAL-EASTERN MEXICO WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N76W AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MUCH
OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE
MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY ALONG WITH TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE
ENHANCING BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE ALSO
FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS...UP TO 30 KT LOCALLY ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
N OF 17N. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW
AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND NWP MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N80W SW
TO 29N81W AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO COASTAL WATERS OF
CLEARWATER. MODERATELY MOIST S-SE FLOW PREVAILS  ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER
ATLC BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS...A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
31N55W AND A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N37W. OTHERWISE...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID
AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 05N-26N BETWEEN 36W-59W WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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