[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND SENEGAL FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 16W AND
17W...TO 12N18W 9N20W AND 7N23W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 1N22W 2N27W
AND 2N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 13W
AND 51W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 7N5W IN THE IVORY COAST...TO 4N13W AND
3N22W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 13W AND 15W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A STILL-INLAND TEXAS COLD FRONT. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF
90W. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS COVERING THE
AREAS FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W HAS DISSIPATED.

ONE 1017 MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N89W. A
1016 MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N96W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KHQI...KCRH...KVBS...AND KATP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... AND
ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS FROM VICTORIA AND PALACIOS NORTHWARD. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING IN THE
AREAS THAT ARE AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MOSTLY SCATTERED AND
SOME BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. FEW TO SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF PERRY. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN THE
AREAS OF FORT MYERS AND NAPLES...AND IN MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...TO WESTERN HONDURAS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE
EAST OF 86W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE...FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND
65W...ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W...FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 78W AND 86W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 58W AND 62W MOVING TOWARD VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD...IN
SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.01 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...TO WESTERN HONDURAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 35N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N65W...TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N70W TO 20N72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N72W...ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI...THROUGH
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA TO 19N80W
AND 18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND
78W...AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE
IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE
HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS WESTERLY WIND
FLOW...WITH A RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS WESTERLY WIND
FLOW...WITH INDIVIDUAL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL BE ON TOP OF THE AREA...WITH ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS AND RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 35N63W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N65W
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 25N66W TO 20N70W AND 20N72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N72W...ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI...THROUGH
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA TO 19N80W
AND 18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N68W 27N69W 23N71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N60W 27N62W 24N64W 21N67W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 35W AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.10 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.03 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N18W 20N30W
12N47W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 24N21W 14N40W...AND THEN WITHIN 600 NM TO
750 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 14N40W 8N57W.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N39W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N63W TO 19N72W. EXPECT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 61W. EXPECT ALSO...FOR THE 06 HOUR
FORECAST WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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