[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N86W TO NICARAGUA AT
12N87W MOVING W AT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 84W-87W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 7N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 6N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-
12N BETWEEN 10W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 14W-17W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 20W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS IS ALONG THE COAST. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N91W TO 28N97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 90W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-90W. 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20N94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT IN 24
HOURS TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO BE N OF THE FRONT
OVER THE SW GULF IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A SHEAR LINE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
FROM 20N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AT 18N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM 18N63W TO 12N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 60W-71W. ELSEWHERE... A MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W PANAMA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA AT 14N73W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE E CARIBBEAN TROUGH TO MOVE W
WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY A SHEAR LINE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER E HISPANIOLA. A
SMALL CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO S OF HISPANIOLA ENHANCING
THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE OTHER CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N62W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM 32N49W TO
26N57W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO THE MONA PASSAGE AT 18N68W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 56W-65W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N25W. IN THE
TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM
15N54W TO 8N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 71W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 55W-71W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N30W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 16N31W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT S
OF 30N TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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