[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Oct 31 05:36:31 CDT 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 311036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N82W TO 10N82W AND DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 10
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN
IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 78W-87W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N11W AND CONTINUES TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO 07N40W 07N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N-07N E OF 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 37N66W. SURFACE
RIDGING IS BEING REINFORCED BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SW GULF AT THE UPPER LEVELS. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOWING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING VERY MOIST AIR FROM
THE E PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN BASIN WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM OFF THE COASTLINE. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
TEXAS ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E TO
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N82W TO 10N82W. THE WAVE
CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS
DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING
DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 78W-
87W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN N ATLC WITH
BASE REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND TO THE MONA
PASSAGE. THE AXIS OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN
THE ISLANDS. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 68W.
ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE E
PACIFIC ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRIDAY
NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN N ATLC WITH BASE
REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS TO EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND TO THE MONA
PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY BEING SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N55W TO 26N58W TO 18N68W.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 25N58W TO 20N59W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 52W-56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN
57W-65W. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N52W TO 09N52W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-16N
BETWEEN 17W-27W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 19N IS DOMINATED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1026 MB HIGH N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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