[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N67W TO 08N61W AND MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED
ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND WITHIN 200 NM
WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-17N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N23W TO 07N37W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N E OF 22W...FROM 06N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-37W AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN GEORGIA NEAR 33N83W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS BEING REINFORCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF WHICH IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM 22N93W
TO 13N92W IN THE E PACIFIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 20N
BETWEEN 93W-94W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING THE TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE N WESTERN ATLC AND THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N W OF 75W. IN THE
SOUTHERN BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IS ENHANCING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 11N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N67W TO 08N61W AND MOVING W NEAR 15-
20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-17N.
ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE OF VERY DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT NEAR 27N70W TO
EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ISLANDWIDE. A MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N62W TO 27N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 62W-69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 06N-19N BETWEEN 50W-57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG
1031 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N21W. THE PORTION
OF THE FRONT THAT IS STATIONARY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A
COLD FRONT WITH A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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