[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO AT 24/0300 UTC IS NEAR
29.5N 48.2W. LORENZO IS MOVING EASTWARD 4 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 29N47W IN ONE CLUSTER OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
.COLD FRONT 25N81W TO 22N89W TO 19N92W. S OF 20N W OF FRONT NW
TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. FROM 20N TO 25N W OF
FRONT N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N25W 8N26W 4N27W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY
TO THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N58W 13N57W 9N55W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
10N56W 13N58W 18N60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W...TO THE SOUTH OF
17N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG THAT COVERED CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED STRONG REMAINS IN FROM WESTERN
HONDURAS TO EASTERN EL SALVADOR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENGAL AND GAMBIA...TO 13N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N19W TO
12N24W 8N28W 7N40W AND 5N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 44W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N
BETWEEN 45W AND 57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF
FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO 22N89W TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CURVING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N92W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
30N86W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...27N92W AND 23N98W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
24N85W TO 23N90W AND 22N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN GUATEMALA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE WEST OF 32N61W 22N72W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THROUGH LOUISIANA...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO 20N98W IN MEXICO...TO 18N96W
TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATION KBQX...KHQI...AND
KGBK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A.
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W
AND 86W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N74W...JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF
CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 75W AND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 66W AND
70W...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 18N67W
16N68W 13N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W...INCLUDING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA TO 9N79W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG THAT
COVERED NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NEIGHBORING NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. NUMEROUS STRONG REMAINS IN
LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 75W AND 76W OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND ALONG THE
PANAMA COAST FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 30N33W AND 30N39W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 32N16W 29N20W 27N30W 30N43W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N TO 30N TO THE EAST OF 44W. A SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N41W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO. A SECOND AREA OF
WINDS AND SEAS IS WITH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN
48W AND 60W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST IS THE 48 HOUR FORECAST...
STATIONARY FRONT 29N65W 21N77W...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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