[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO AT 23/0900 UTC IS NEAR
29.6N 49.2W. LORENZO IS MOVING EASTWARD 7 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AT THIS MOMENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 20W AND
30W MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED MORE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N79W 15N80W 10N81W
MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG
ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO 12N BETWEEN
74W AND 77W...AND ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST TO THE NORTH OF 13N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W 8N20W 5N29W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N29W TO 2N38W TO 3N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH OF
10N TO THE EAST OF 53W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N76W...TO 29N82W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE
PART THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 29N90W 26N97W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO TO 21N
BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE BETWEEN CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...AND FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATION KIPN. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE VISIBILITY IS 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG AT NEW IBERIA
LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA. A MIDDLE CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA GORDA.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. A
HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL PLAINS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD
FRONT 31N87W 24N98W. STATIONARY FRONT 29N82W 25N90W 19N96W.
.NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS...GALE WARNING...AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET FROM 19N TO 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W.
EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W
AND 79W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
HAITI NEAR 18N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N70W...ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...TO NORTHWESTERN HAITI...WESTERN
HAITI...AND TO 17N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 66W AND JAMAICA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
FOLLOWED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE
GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT EITHER A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER AND/OR A TROUGH WILL SPAN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 61W TO
THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS FEATURE
SHOWS UP WELL IN LONG-LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY...IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND IN BUOY DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN
63W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 56W AND 69W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W
IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST/IN THE
COASTAL WATERS TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...ALONG THE NICARAGUA
COAST TO THE NORTH OF 13N...AND COVERING LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 73W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 83W AT THE
NICARAGUA COAST.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N
BETWEEN 43W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N TO 30N TO THE EAST OF 44W. A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N41W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LORENZO. A SECOND AREA OF WINDS AND
SEAS IS WITH THE 6 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N78W 28N81W.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN
8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 72W. A
THIRD AREA OF INTEREST IS IN THE 30 HOUR FORECAST...EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN
46W AND 52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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